<p>Moody's have downgraded several Chinese property developers</p><p>Moody's recently lowered the outlook of the sector.</p><p>Has now downgraded the credit ratings of property developers including:</p><ul><li> China Resources Land, China Overseas Land and Investment, China Vanke, Greentown China, Yuexiu Property, and China Jinmao to Negative</li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Reuters carry the news on JPMorgan announcing on Friday that it will include India in its widely tracked emerging market debt index.</p><ul><li>India's local bonds will be included in the Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) index and the index suite, benchmarked by about $236 billion in global funds according to JPMorgan. </li><li> JPMorgan said 23 Indian Government Bonds (IGBs) with a combined notional value of $330 billion are eligible. </li><li>"India's weight is expected to reach the maximum weight threshold of 10% in the GBI-EM Global Diversified (.JPMGBIEMGD), and approximately 8.7% in the GBI-EM Global index," said JPMorgan.</li></ul><p>More detail at the<a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/india-local-government-bonds-added-key-jpmorgan-index-trigger-billions-inflows-2023-09-22/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"> link to Reuters.</a></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/japan-finance-minister-suzuki-says-no-comment-on-fx-levels-or-moves-20230922/">Japan finance minister Suzuki says no comment on FX levels or moves</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boj-meeting-today-will-pave-the-way-for-a-move-in-october-and-more-in-early-2024-20230922/">BOJ meeting today will pave the way for a move in October and more in early 2024</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-for-today-at-71729-vs-estimate-at-73009-20230922/">PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1729 (vs. estimate at 7.3009)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-september-preliminary-manufacturing-pmi-486-prior-496-20230922/">Japan September preliminary Manufacturing PMI 48.6 (prior 49.6)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/pboc-is-expected-to-set-the-usdcny-reference-rate-at-73009-reuters-modelled-estimate-20230922/">PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.3009 – Reuters modelled estimate</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/more-on-japan-pm-kishidas-moves-to-spur-competition-in-asset-management-industry-20230922/">More on Japan PM Kishida's moves to spur competition in asset management industry</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-lane-inflation-over-2-is-costly-for-the-economy-20230921/">ECB's Lane: Inflation over 2% is costly for the economy</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-august-inflation-cpi-excluding-fresh-food-energy-43-yy-prior-43-20230921/">Japan August Inflation: CPI excluding fresh food &amp; energy +4.3% y/y (prior +4.3%)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/lng-strikes-australian-media-report-that-unions-have-agreed-to-end-dispute-with-chevron-20230921/">LNG strikes - Australian media report that Unions have agreed to end dispute with Chevron</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/australian-preliminary-pmis-for-september-manufacturing-482-services-505-20230921/">Australian preliminary PMIs for September: Manufacturing 48.2 &amp; Services 50.5</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-lane-says-transmission-of-monetary-policy-to-the-real-economy-is-firmly-taking-hold-20230921/">ECB's Lane says transmission of monetary policy to the real economy is firmly taking hold</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/new-zealand-august-exports-nzd-499bn-prior-545bn-imports-nzd-728bn-prior-665bn-20230921/">New Zealand August exports NZD 4.99bn (prior $5.45bn) &amp; Imports NZD 7.28bn (prior $6.65bn)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/theres-a-saudi-put-in-the-energy-markets-oil-heading-to-100-barrel-20230921/">There's a Saudi put in the energy markets, oil heading to $100 / barrel</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/icymi-russia-is-banning-exports-of-gasoline-and-diesel-20230921/">ICYMI - Russia is banning exports of gasoline and diesel</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/nzd-traders-heads-up-new-zealand-moves-onto-daylight-saving-this-weekend-20230921/">NZD traders heads up - New Zealand moves onto daylight saving this weekend</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bank-of-japan-statement-due-today-previews-ueda-under-pressure-on-weak-yen-20230921/">Bank of Japan statement due today - previews - Ueda under pressure on weak yen</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/icymi-goldman-sachs-pushes-back-expectation-of-first-fed-rate-cut-to-q4-2024-from-q2-20230921/">ICYMI - Goldman Sachs pushes back expectation of first Fed rate cut to Q4 2024 (from Q2)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-americas-fx-news-wrap-21-sep-stocks-hit-the-skids-as-us-yields-surge-20230921/">Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 21 Sep: Stocks hit the skids as US yields surge</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/new-zealand-data-westpac-consumer-confidence-for-q3-2023-802-vs-prior-831-20230921/">New Zealand data - Westpac Consumer Confidence for Q3 2023: 80.2 (vs. prior 83.1)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/jp-morgan-expect-bank-of-england-rate-cycle-over-but-point-out-2-risks-to-this-view-20230921/">JP Morgan expect Bank of England rate cycle over, but point out 2 risks to this view</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-stocks-close-at-lowsfor-the-2nd-consecutive-day-20230921/">US stocks close at lows of the day for the 2nd consecutive day</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/trade-ideas-thread-friday-22-september-2023-20230921/">Trade ideas thread - Friday, 22 September 2023</a></li></ul><p class="western"> Ahead of the much-awaited BoJ statement today we had inflation data from Japan for August. Once again the levels of underlying inflation are at high levels (for Japan):</p><ul><li>the ‘core’ rate, that excluding fresh food, came in at 3.1% vs. the 3.0% expected and above the Bank of Japan target of 2% for the 17th month in a row. The Bank of Japan keep telling us that such high levels are transitory. I’m not a Japanese household facing rising living costs but if I were I’d be considering heading down to BOJ HQ with a few mates and pitchforks. 17 months is not transitory. </li><li>You think that's high, the ‘core-core’ level, which strips away the effect of both volatile fresh food and fuel prices and is the closest to the US measure of core inflation) came in at 4.3%. Maybe I’d take two pitchforks. </li></ul><p class="western">USD/JPY didn't do a lot in response, edging up ever so slightly just under 147.60. A bigger move came later when US yields held steadily higher. The 10-year hit 4.5%, its highest since 2007. You’ll remember 2007. Global Financial Crisis and all that …</p><p class="western">JGB yields ticked lower ahead of the BoJ.</p><p class="western">The USD rose a little also against the EUR and GBP. AUD, NZD, and CAD held steady to higher against the big dollar (as I update). </p><p class="western">Other data today included flash PMIs from Australia and Japan, and trade balance data from New Zealand (see bullets above). </p><p class="western">European Central Bank chief economist Lane gave a speech during the session, flagging that the transmission of ECB monetary policy to broader financing conditions and the real economy is firmly taking hold. If he is right it takes pressure off for still higher rates, at the margin. </p><p class="western">The Australian LNG strike has been resolved. Unions and Chevron have reached agreement and industrial action will be halted.</p><p class="western">The Yuan gained some ground on talk that some Chinese banks sold US dollars again. USD/CNH fell from highs circa 7.3160 to under 7.2970 as I post.</p><p class="western">If you are reading this ahead of the Bank of Japan statement, previews are here:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boj-meeting-today-will-pave-the-way-for-a-move-in-october-and-more-in-early-2024-20230922/" target="_blank" data-article-link="true" class="article-link">BOJ meeting today will pave the way for a move in October and more in early 2024</a></li></ul><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bank-of-japan-statement-due-today-previews-ueda-under-pressure-on-weak-yen-20230921/" target="_blank" data-article-link="true" class="article-link article-link">Bank of Japan statement due today - previews - Ueda under pressure on weak yen</a></li></ul><ul class="text-align-start vertical-align-baseline"><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/boj-will-not-unwind-easy-policy-at-this-weeks-meeting-poll-20230921/" target="_blank" data-article-link="true" class="article-link article-link article-link">BOJ will not unwind easy policy at this week's meeting - poll</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boj-statement-due-friday-ueda-could-strike-a-hawkish-chord-20230921/" target="_blank" data-article-link="true" class="article-link article-link article-link">BOJ statement due Friday: "Ueda could strike a hawkish chord"</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boj-staatement-tomorrow-preview-could-probably-send-a-subtle-hawkish-message-20230921/" target="_blank" data-article-link="true" class="article-link article-link article-link">BOJ statement tomorrow - preview - "could probably send a subtle hawkish message "</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/anz-expect-a-subtle-shift-from-the-boj-at-this-weeks-meeting-to-less-dovish-20230919/" target="_blank" data-article-link="true" class="article-link article-link article-link">ANZ expect a subtle shift from the BOJ at this week's meeting - to less dovish</a></li></ul><p class="western"> Asian equity markets mixed after the rout on Wall Street on Thursday:</p><ul><li><p class="western"> Japan’s Nikkei 225 -0.7%</p></li><li><p class="western"> China’s Shanghai Composite +0.4%</p></li><li><p class="western"> Hong Kong’s Hang Seng +0.7%</p></li><li><p class="western"> South Korea’s KOSPI -0.3%</p></li><li><p class="western"> Australia’s S&amp;P/ASX 200 -0.8%</p></li></ul><p>USD/JPY heading towards the BOJ:</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Jibun Bank / S&amp;P Global data</p><ul><li>Manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to a in September from 49.6 in August<ul><li>The manufacturing PMI is in contraction for the fourth straight month</li><li>the rate of input price inflation hit a four-month high</li></ul></li><li>The flash Services PMI for the month comes in at 53.3 in September from 54.3 in August<ul><li>an eight-month low</li></ul></li><li>Composite PMI 51.8 in September from 52.6 in August</li></ul><p>Still to come from Japan today, the Bank of Japan statement.</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bank-of-japan-statement-due-today-previews-ueda-under-pressure-on-weak-yen-20230921/" target="_blank" data-article-link="true" class="article-link">Bank of Japan statement due today - previews - Ueda under pressure on weak yen</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/economic-calendar-in-asia-friday-22-september-2023-bank-of-japan-policy-statement-due-20230921/" target="_blank" data-article-link="true" class="article-link">Economic calendar in Asia Friday, 22 September 2023 - Bank of Japan policy statement due</a></li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The headlines on this were earlier in the week:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-pm-to-outline-plans-to-allow-overseas-asset-management-firms-entry-to-domestic-mkt-20230919/" target="_blank" data-article-link="true" class="article-link">Japan PM to outline plans to allow overseas asset management firms' entry to domestic mkt</a></li></ul><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/japans-pm-kishida-to-allow-overseas-asset-management-firms-entry-to-domestic-market-20230919/" target="_blank" rel="follow">Japan's PM Kishida to allow overseas asset management firms' entry to domestic market</a></li></ul><p>These were a heads up to a speech the Prime Minister was to give in New York. Which he has now done. Our patience paid off any now we have more details (Reuters <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japans-kishida-seeks-shake-up-5-trillion-asset-management-industry-2023-09-21/?taid=650cda2e2c604f0001bfe278&amp;utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&amp;utm_medium=trueAnthem&amp;utm_source=twitter" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">here </a>for much more):</p><ul><li>Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida aims to spur competition in the country's $5 trillion asset management industry by prompting new market entrants to turn dormant household savings into investments, he told investors in New York. </li><li> The Japanese government is reviving its decades-old policy pledge to move 2,000 trillion yen ($13.48 trillion) of household financial assets into investment, as half of such assets are sitting in cash or bank deposits.</li><li>"We will push hard to encourage sophisticated asset management and to solicit new entrants," Kishida said in a speech at the Economic Club of New York that was also broadcast online. </li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Core inflation, in at 3.1% vs. 3.0% expected and core-core (which strips away the effect of both volatile fresh food and fuel prices and is the closest to the US measure of core inflation) in at 4.3% vs. 4.3% expected) are both solidly well above the Bank of Japan 2% target.</p><ul><li>core inflation was above the BOJ's 2% target for the 17th straight month</li></ul><p>----</p><p>The big event out of Japan today is the Bank of Japan statement. </p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bank-of-japan-statement-due-today-previews-ueda-under-pressure-on-weak-yen-20230921/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Bank of Japan statement due today - previews - Ueda under pressure on weak yen</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/economic-calendar-in-asia-friday-22-september-2023-bank-of-japan-policy-statement-due-20230921/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Economic calendar in Asia Friday, 22 September 2023 - Bank of Japan policy statement due</a></li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The media report doesn't cite sources but says that the LNG union have agreed to endorse recommendations made by the industrial umpire to end dispute with Chevron.</p><p>And that the Union will agree to call off strikes at Chevron facilities. </p><p>more to come</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>An improvement from August for Services but not so for Manufacturing </p><p>AUD is little changed. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>New Zealand trade balance data for August 2023.</p><p>Thats a very solid imports number and indicative of some strength in the economy. </p><p>more to come </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Comments come from Mark Fisher, founder and CEO of MBF Clearing Corp., a large futures commission merchant (FCM)</p><p>He was interviewed on CBNC on Thursday.</p><ul><li>"There used to be the Greenspan put to the equity markets. I think there's a Saudi puts in the energy markets, to some degree,"</li><li> adding that the floor could be around $75 top $80 a barrel</li></ul><p>Crude-oil prices could rise above $100 a barrel due to global supply shortages</p><p> when it appeared the Federal Reserve was ready to backstop equities on signs of weakness by cutting interest rates, the so-called "Greenspan put."</p><p>---</p><p>A Futures Commission Merchant (FCM)] is an individual or organization that does both of the following: </p><ol><li> Solicits or accepts orders to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures, </li><li>and Accepts money or other assets from customers to support such orders.</li></ol><p>---</p><p>As for the "Greenspan put", this refers to perceptions that the Federal Reserve was ready to backstop equities on signs of weakness by cutting interest rates.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p> In recent months, Russia has suffered shortages of gasoline and diesel. This has seen wholesale fuel prices spiking higher, although the flow through to retail prices has been limited due to price caps. </p><p>The military demand for the fuels has jumped, of course. </p><p>Russia is halting exports of the products ahead of the winter heating months. Russia make an exception for exports to a small group of former Soviet countries. </p><p>Russia is one of the world's biggest seaborne exporters of diesel.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>A heads up for traders New Zealand markets. Clocks will roll forward an hour on the morning of Sunday 24 September. </p><p>Adjust your trading hours in your local time accordingly!</p><p>ps. Australian markets will roll forward on the following Sunday, October 1. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-stocks-close-at-lowsfor-the-2nd-consecutive-day-20230921/">US stocks close at lows of the day for the 2nd consecutive day</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-stocks-hitting-the-skids-going-into-the-close-20230921/">US stocks hitting the skids going into the close. Mortgage rate follow yields higher.</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/wti-crude-futures-settle-at-8963-20230921/">WTI crude futures settle at $89.63</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/more-from-bank-of-englands-bailey-good-news-that-inflation-in-the-uk-is-coming-down-20230921/">More from Bank of England's Bailey: Good news that inflation in the UK is coming down</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/house-republicans-lose-rule-vote-on-defense-appropriations-bill-20230921/">House Republicans lose rule vote on defense appropriations bill</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/major-european-indices-close-lower-despite-the-steady-central-bank-policy-decisions-20230921/">Major European indices close lower despite the steady central bank policy decisions</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/eu-consumer-confidence-flash-for-september-178-versus-165-estimate-20230921/">EU consumer confidence flash for September -17.8 versus -16.5 estimate</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-leading-indicators-for-august-04-versus-05-expected-20230921/">US leading indicators for August -0.4% versus -0.5% expected</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-existing-home-sales-for-august-404m-vs-410m-estimate-20230921/">US existing home sales for August 4.04M vs 4.10M estimate</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-knot-does-not-expect-a-rate-hike-at-next-policy-meeting-20230921/">ECBs Knot: Does not expect a rate hike at next policy meeting</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boe-bailey-the-jobs-not-done-yet-20230921/">BOE Bailey: The jobs not done yet</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-wunsch-whether-we-need-to-do-more-or-not-is-a-very-difficult-question-20230921/">ECBs Wunsch: Whether we need to do more or not is a very difficult question</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/kickstart-your-forex-trading-with-a-technical-look-at-the-eurusd-usdjpy-and-gbpusd-20230921/">Kickstart your forex trading with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-vujcic-as-prices-4-rates-will-be-more-restrictive-20230921/">ECB's Vujcic: As prices ease, 4% rates will be more restrictive</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/philadelphia-fed-september-manufacturing-index-135-vs-07-estimate-20230921/">Philadelphia Fed September manufacturing index -13.5 vs -0.7 estimate</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-201k-versus-225k-estimate-20230921/">US initial jobless claims 201K versus 225K estimate</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-jpy-is-the-strongest-and-the-chf-is-the-weakest-as-the-na-session-begins-20230921/">The JPY is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest as the NA session begins</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-european-fx-news-wrap-snb-and-boe-surprise-by-keeping-interest-rates-unchanged-20230921/">ForexLive European FX news wrap: SNB and BOE surprise by keeping interest rates unchanged</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boes-bailey-inflation-is-falling-and-we-expect-it-to-fall-further-this-year-20230921/">BOE's Bailey: Inflation is falling and we expect it to fall further this year</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boe-leaves-bank-rate-unchanged-at-525-vs-550-expected-20230921/">BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 5.25% vs 5.50% expected</a></li></ul><p>The early US session saw the Bank of England keep rates unchanged by a vote of 5 – 4. That was congruent with the 50-50 chance of a hike. The GBPUSD fell on the news reaching a low of 1.2227 before starting a rebound to the upside that saw the pair move to a post-low high of 1.2307. There is resistance up to 1.2314 which is the broken 61.8% retracement of the 2023 trading range. So far traders are leaning against that level with the price currently trading at 1.2290 going into the close. Watch 1.2314 in the new trading day. A move above would likely disappoint sellers on the break.</p><p>In the US, the markets were influenced by stronger initial jobless claims today. The weekly claims came in at 201K, much lower than the 225K estimate, and the lowest level since the end of March. </p><p>The Fed yesterday kept rates unchanged but remained concerned about inflation and employment which remains elevated (for inflation) and solid (for employment). The Fed lowered their estimate for the unemployment rate to 4.1% for the end of the year, and judging from today's data, they may have to lower it further given the strength. </p><p>The stronger claims data and the hangover from the commentary from the Fed's decision where they said that they would keep rates higher for longer sent yields higher - especially out the curve. A look at the yields:</p><ul><li>2-year yield rose 2.4 basis points to 5.143%</li><li>5-year yield rose 10.6 basis points to 4.6.9 percent</li><li>10-year yield rose 14.7 basis points to 4.496%</li><li>30-year yield rose 17.9 basis points to 4.479%</li></ul><p>That move took the 2 – 10 year spread to -64 basis points which is still well negative, but it was -87 basis points at the end of August. It makes you wonder if the yield curve will ever go positive again without the Fed cutting rates. I guess they have to put the economy into recession.</p><p>The higher rates sent stocks tumbling for the 2nd consecutive day. Moreover, the 3 major indices ALL closed below their 100 day moving averages for the 1st time since January 19 (the NASDAQ index closed below the 100-day moving average on that day). Bearish. The 3 major indices also closed near lows for the day for the 2nd consecutive day. </p><ul><li>Dow Industrial Average closed at 34070.43. Its 100-day moving averages at 34268.38.</li><li>S&amp;P closed at 4330.01. Its 100-day moving average is at 4375.38</li><li>NASDAQ and that closed at 13223.97. Its t 100-day moving average is at 13459.75</li></ul><p>The prices of those major indices would need to close back above the 100-day moving average to tilt the bias back to the upside. Tomorrow will be a key day for the major indices.</p><p>In the forex market, the JPY is ending the day as the strongest of the major currencies (ahead of the BOJ rate decision on Friday). The CHF is the weakest. The USD is ending modestly higher with gains vs the GBP, CHF CAD and AUD. The USD fell vs the JPY and was unchanged versus the EUR and NZD. </p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Weak consumer sentiment in New Zealand got weaker in the third quarter of 2023.</p><p>Yesterday we had better than expected economic growth reported:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/new-zealand-q2-gdp-rises-more-strongly-than-expected-20230920/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">New Zealand Q2 GDP rises more strongly than expected</a></li></ul><p>The revision to the Q1 data included had implications for the recession in New Zealand:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-asia-pacific-fx-news-wrap-us-yields-and-us-dollar-both-continue-to-soar-20230921/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: US yields and US dollar, both continue to soar</a></li></ul><p>NZD/USD is being shoved around by global developments more than by the local data:</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The US stocks are closing at session lows for the 2nd consecutive day. That's not a good thing. Moreover, each of the 3 major indices closed below their 100-day moving averages. You have to go back to January 19 for the last time one all 3 indices were below its 100 day moving average on the same trading day (that was the last time the NASDAQ index closed below its 100-day moving average).</p><p>The final numbers are showing:</p><ul><li>Dow industrial average fell -370.48 points or -1.08% at 34070.41</li><li>S&amp;P fell -72.20 points or -1.64% at 4330.01</li><li>NASDAQ index fell -245.15 points or -1.82% at 13223.97</li></ul><p>Looking at the Dow industrial average, the price fell below it's 100-day moving average at 34268.38. The price is testing its 38.2% retracement of the 2023 trading range at 34055.89. The 200-day moving average is at 33807.97 and would be a another target on further selling.</p><p>The S&amp;P index fell below its 100-day moving average at the open at 4375.38 and close near the swing low going back to June 26 at 4330.01. A move below that level would have traders targeting the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the end of December low at 4325.28.</p><p>The Nasdaq index fell below its 100-day moving average at 13459.75 today, and is looking toward the August 18 low at 13223.97. A move below that level would have traders targeting the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the December 28 low. That level comes in at 12827.22.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>It's a very active agenda ahead, with most focus on the Bank of Japan statement. There is never a scheduled time for the release of the Bank's statement. Its likely to be sometime in the 0230 to 0330 (GMT) time window (10.30 to 11.30 pm US Eastern time).</p><p>Expectations of any change in policy from the Bank are low. We had a few minor surprises this week from central banks already, from a hawkish hold, higher for longer FOMC, to the BoE flipping to on hold in light of the better inflation data, and a surprise decision from the Swiss National Bank. </p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-americas-fx-news-wrap-20-sep-fed-keeps-steady-but-shifts-to-higher-for-longer-20230920/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 20 Sep: Fed keeps steady but shifts to higher for longer</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-european-fx-news-wrap-snb-and-boe-surprise-by-keeping-interest-rates-unchanged-20230921/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">ForexLive European FX news wrap: SNB and BOE surprise by keeping interest rates unchanged</a></li></ul><p>Its probably too much to expect anything unusual from the Bank of Japan but I won't be assuming anything. The inflation data due beforehand will show 18 months of above target CPI for the core reading, but so far the Bank have insisted this is transitory. And have thus said maintaining ultra-easy policy is essential. Some cracks have begun to show in this insistence, so surely its only a matter of time (but how long?) until the Bank waters down its policy.</p><p>Earlier BOJ previews:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/boj-will-not-unwind-easy-policy-at-this-weeks-meeting-poll-20230921/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">BOJ will not unwind easy policy at this week's meeting - poll</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boj-statement-due-friday-ueda-could-strike-a-hawkish-chord-20230921/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">BOJ statement due Friday: "Ueda could strike a hawkish chord"</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boj-staatement-tomorrow-preview-could-probably-send-a-subtle-hawkish-message-20230921/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">BOJ statement tomorrow - preview - "could probably send a subtle hawkish message "</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/anz-expect-a-subtle-shift-from-the-boj-at-this-weeks-meeting-to-less-dovish-20230919/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">ANZ expect a subtle shift from the BOJ at this week's meeting - to less dovish</a></li></ul><ul><li>This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar" target="_blank" title="Click here!">access it here</a>.</li><li>The times in the left-most column are GMT.</li><li>The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.</li><li> I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing.</li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Good morning, afternoon and evening. Y'all finished trashing stocks?</p><p> Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The major US stock indices are hitting the skids heading into the close. The NASDAQ is now down -1.7% trading a new session lows. The S&amp;P index is also at session lows with a decline of -1.56%.</p><p>In the interest rate market, the rates are trading near highs out the yield curve is traders adjust toward a higher for longer Fed. </p><ul><li>The 10-year yield is trading up +14 basis points to 4.486%. </li><li>The 30 year yield is the biggest mover with a gain of +16.3 basis points and trading at 4.5612%</li></ul><p>The 30 year fixed rate mortgage is following the yield higher with a gain of 14 basis points to 7.47%. That is going to slow down the housing market. </p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The US House representatives lost the most recent rules vote on defense appropriations bill.</p><p class="text-align-start">House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is struggling to unite his Republican colleagues around a temporary funding bill to prevent a federal government shutdown at the end of the month. Despite ongoing negotiations, McCarthy is running out of options as the deadline approaches. Even if he manages to pass a conservative spending plan in the House, it is likely to be rejected by the Senate, where Democrats hold the majority.</p><p class="text-align-start">McCarthy's leadership is being questioned, especially after a group of GOP lawmakers from the House Freedom Caucus joined Democrats to block a defense bill which typically is a no-brainer. McCarthy is trying to push a stopgap bill that would cut many government services by 8% but spare defense and veterans accounts. However, conservative holdouts want these cuts to be in place for a full year.</p><p>Amid this deadlock, bipartisan groups in both the House and Senate are exploring alternative solutions to fund the government. President Joe Biden's request for an additional $24 billion in aid for Ukraine is also hanging in the balance. The situation remains tense as lawmakers scramble to find a solution before the government runs out of money.</p><p>When things get tight in Washington, they tend to hurt equities temporarily (politically it is not good to have a government shutdown). However, with deficits moving higher, rates also likely to remain high increasing interest costs on those deficits, and risk of slower growth as the Fed looks to stop inflation (i.e. tax receipts), all may lead to more digging in by conservative/spending hardliners. </p><p>With the majority of the Republicans in the House having problems with some GOP members wanting even more restrictions on spending, while Dems don't want the current proposal, that spells trouble for McCarthy. </p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The major European indices are closing the day lower with all but the UK FTSE 100 down over 1%. The final numbers are showing</p><ul><li>German DAX -1.33%</li><li>Frances CAC -1.59%</li><li>UK's FTSE 100 -0.69%</li><li>Spain's Ibex -1.0%</li><li>Italy's FTSE MIB -1.74%</li></ul><p>The Bank of England and Swiss National Bank kept its rates unchanged today. The Bank of England was a 50-50 proposition while the Swiss National Bank analysts expected a 25 basis point hike. </p><p>As European traders look to exit, the JPY is the strongest of the major currencies. THe CHF is the weakest of the major currencies. The USD is mixed with gains versus the GBP, CHF, CAD and AUD, and declines versus the EUR, JPY and NZD. </p><p>Looking at other markets:</p><ul><li>Crude oil is trading up $0.32 or 0.36% at $89.98</li><li>Gold is trading down $13.21 or -0.68% at $1917.57</li><li>Bitcoin is trading at $26,611</li></ul><p>In the US stock market, major indices remain under pressure:</p><ul><li>Dow industrial average -159 points or -0.46% at 34281</li><li>S&amp;P -44.78 points or -1.01% at 4357.45</li><li>NASDAQ -160 points or -1.19% at 13309</li></ul><p>In the US debt market, yields remain higher with the shorter end off their highest levels and trading nearer lows</p><ul><li>2-year yield 5.139%, +2.0 basis points</li><li>5-year yield 4.610% +9.7 basis points</li><li>10-year yield 4.473% +12.7 basis points</li><li>30-year yield 4.552% +15.3 basis points</li></ul><p>Problems in Washington on procedural rules vote for defense appropriations bill threatens a government shutdown as the McCarthy caucus in the House of Representatives is failing. Implications of a shutdown are not good.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior month -16.0</li><li>EU consumer confidence flash for September -17.8 versus -16.5 estimate</li></ul><p>The EURUSD is remained steady at 1.0643</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior month -0.4% revised to -0.3%</li><li>The month-to-month index has been negative since January 2022 (17 consecutive months)</li><li>Leading indicators for August -0.4% versus -0.5% expected</li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-existing-home-sales-for-july-407m-vs-415m-estimate-20230822/" target="_blank" rel="follow">Prior month</a> 4.07M</li><li>existing home sales 4.04M versus 4.10M estimate</li><li>MoM -0.7%</li><li>Sales are down -15.3% year on year</li><li>1.1 million units of inventory which is -0.9% monthly and -14.1% year on year</li><li>3.3 month supply</li><li>Median price up 3.9% to $407,100. This is the 3rd consecutive month the median sales price brass 400,000</li><li>Properties typically remained on the market for 20 days in August, unchanged from July and up from 16 days in August 2022</li><li>72% of the homes sold in August were on the market for less than a month</li><li>First-time buyers are responsible for 29% of sales in August down from 30% in July, and identical to August 2022. It's the lowest level of first-time buyers was 26% in November 2022</li><li>All cash sales accounted for 27% of transactions in August up from 26% in July and 24% in August 2022</li><li>Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales represented 1% of sales in August unchanged from last month in the previous year</li><li>According to Freddie Mac the 30 year mortgage rate averaged 7.18% as of September 14 which is up from 7.122% from the prior weekend 6.02% one year ago</li></ul><p>Looking at the 4 separate regions:</p><ul><li><p>Northeast:</p><ul><li>Existing-home sales in August: Unchanged from July, down 22.6% YoY.</li><li>Median price: $465,700, up 5.8% YoY.</li></ul></li><li><p>Midwest:</p><ul><li>Existing-home sales in August: Increased 1.0% from July, down 16.4% YoY.</li><li>Median price: $305,300, up 6.8% YoY.</li></ul></li><li><p>South:</p><ul><li>Existing-home sales in August: Decreased 1.1% from July, down 12.4% YoY.</li><li>Median price: $366,100, up 3.2% YoY.</li></ul></li><li><p>West:</p><ul><li>Existing-home sales in August: Decreased 2.6% from July, down 15.7% YoY.</li><li>Median price: $609,300, up 1.0% YoY.</li></ul></li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The US major indices are opening lower with the NASDAQ index as the biggest laggard. The NASDAQ index fell -209 points yesterday and is adding on another -120 point decline in early trading today. The Federal Reserve Rates Rates unchanged yesterday but expects another rate hike in 2023 and raised their expectations for the end of 2024 Fed funds rate to 5.1% from 4.6%. The new term from analysts is "higher for longer". </p><p>US yields are higher with the 10-year yield up 12.7 basis points. The 2-year yield is up 4.1 basis points. </p><p>A snapshot of the market 3 minutes into the open is showing:</p><ul><li>Dow industrial average -200.83 points or -0.58% at 34240.06</li><li>S&amp;P -35.08 points or 0.80% at 4367.13</li><li>NASDAQ index -141.18 points or -1.05% at 13327.95</li></ul><p>looking at the yield curve:</p><ul><li>2 year yield 5.156% +3.7 basis points</li><li>5 year yield 4.617% up 10.4 basis points</li><li>10 year yield 4.469% up 12.2 basis points</li><li>30 year yield 4.532% up 13.2 basis points</li></ul><p>in other markets:</p><ul><li>Crude oil has reversed higher and it is now trading up $0.92 at $90.58 up 1.03%</li><li>Spot gold is lower by -$13.87 or -0.72% at 1916.93</li><li>bitcoin is trading back below the $27,000 level at $26,508 today</li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The equity futures contracts are applying a sharply lower opening for the major indices:</p><ul><li>Dow industrial average is expected to open up down -171 points</li><li>S&amp;P index is affected open down -35 points</li><li>NASDAQ index is expected to tumble by -173 points</li></ul><p>Yesterday the major indices all fell enclosed near low levels with the NASDAQ leading the way. </p><ul><li>Dow industrial average fell -76.85 points or -0.22%</li><li>S&amp;P index fell -41.73 points or -0.94%</li><li>NASDAQ index fell minus 209.06.0 -1.53%</li></ul><p>US interest rates are higher again with the two-year up 4.3 basis points of 5.16%. It tested the 5.20% today with a high yield of 5.202%. The 10 year yield is testing for .5% with a high yield of 4.49% today. The yield is currently at 4.47% up 12.3 basis points on the day and the highest level going back to October 2007.</p><p>US existing home sales, and leading index for August will be reported at 10 AM. Existing home sales are expected at 4.10M versus 4.07M last month. The leading index is expected at -0.5% versus -0.4%. The leading index has not had a monthly increase since March 2022.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.